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Sep 17, 2021
Show Notes:
- [0:00:57] Intro | Timely Topics
- Radio voices are a go.
- Wear sunscreen!
- A brief recap of the previous episode.
- [00:03:00] Leaving Behind Analysis Paralysis
- Punished by choice, leaving uncertainty to chance, and overconfidence
- All of them exhibit a lack of knowledge/experience/data.
- Gaining information when under the thumb of uncertainty.
- Iterative action/s through uncertainty.
- Understanding pieces at a time.
- "Put one foot in front of the other...and soon..."
- You can't overestimate the value of action.
- The scientific method is your friend!
- You make observations and you ask questions. That's the start.
- "What does this uncertainty/opportunity afford to us as a company?"
- "Then what?" *what's next?*
- "So what?" *measuring worth & magnitude*
- [00:12:20] Important Aspects of Moving from Uncertainty to Action
- "Where is the opportunity in the uncertainty?"
- Using the trend of distributed work culture as an example.
- Forming a testable explanation to get you to the next stage.
- "What are the limiters to growth?"
- "What are the things that good organizations do continually?"
- Financial capability can undoubtedly fuel growth, but ultimately people (and their experience/talent) are the finite resource that limits growth.
- You HAVE to make a prediction.
- You want to come out of your experiment with more knowledge than you had going into the hypothesis.
- Informing the prediction.
- Expected outcomes vs the reality.
- Control your variables...as best as you can.
- An example using seasonal discounts/sales.
- Isolate individual actions.
- Results HAVE to be repeatable.
- Because you will have to repeat your results, likely sooner than later.
- Moving from one experiment to another too quickly is dangerous.
- One at a time is best if possible.
- Iterate, and repeat the processes.
- Insert new variables, new predictions.
- Patience is so very important.
- We often give up on things too quickly.
- [00:24:50] Wrapping Up with Parting Words & Takeaways
- Things to keep in mind:
- A failed experiment: a hypothesis PROVEN WRONG is a SUCCESS as long as you learned a lesson!
- Everything moves you toward success.
- To quote Adam Savage of Mythbusters, "Failure is always an option."
- The truth is that failure doesn't have to be negative.
- When you're dealing with uncertainty, decisions are riskier than experiments.
- It's ok to be uncertain, but it's also ok to be certain...as long as you're right.
- This is why it's a lot safer to admit when you're uncertain and create experiments than it is to double down on your pride/ego with decisions that come from false certainty.
- Commitments are dangerous in experiments.
- Action is okay, but experimental action is the best way forward.
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